Obama vs McCain

The Democrats have made up their minds and chosen Obama over Clinton, after a long and somewhat bitter race. Even Clinton has admitted defeat, and Obama can put his general election campaign on the road. Whether it was a good decision or not remains to be seen. The betting markets are currently giving Obama a 60 per cent chance of winning the presidency.

Johan Ingerö has issued a challenge (in Swedish), where various bloggers are guessing what the outcome will be, state by state. Ingerö himself has McCain winning 302 – 236, while Dick Erixon is even more optimistic (they both prefer McCain) guessing 343-195. I thought I would add my own prediction, for whatever it is worth. So without further ado:

States to McCain

Alaska (3)
Idaho (4)
Utah (5)
Colorado (9)
Arizona (10)
Nevada (5)
Montana (3)
Wyoming (3)
North Dakota (3)
South Dakota (3)
Nebraska (5)
Kansas (6)
Oklahoma (7)
Texas (34)
Missouri (11)
Arkansas (6)
Louisiana (9)
Indiana (11)
Ohio (20)
Kentucky (8)
West Virginia (5)
Virginia (13)
North Carolina (15)
Georgia (15)
Florida (27)
Alabama (9)
Mississippi (6)
Tennessee (11)
New Hampshire (4)
Connecticut (7)

States to Obama

Washington (11)
Oregon (7)
California (55)
New Mexico (5)
Minnesota (10)
Wisconsin (10)
Iowa (7)
Illinois (21)
Maine (4)
Vermont (3)
Massachussets (12)
Rhode Island (4)
New York (31)
New Jersey (15)
Pennsylvania (21)
Delaware (3)
South Carolina (8)
Maryland (10)
Hawaii (4)
Michigan (17)
Washington DC (3)

If you are keeping count that makes it 277 – 261 in favour of McCain. I would be surprised to see him win by a margin the size of those predicted by Ingerö and Erixon, but I do think he’ll come out ahead. Obama’s protectionism will win him some votes, especially in places like Michigan, but I don’t think it will be enough.

We’ll know in November.

Update: Here are Andreas Henriksson’s predictions.

Update 2: Here is a summary of the rather many predictions. It will be fun to see how it all goes.


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