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The conventions of the Democrats and Republicans are over, experts have speculated on the effect of various speeches, and the candidates themselves have presented themselves in a more official fashion. I have to admit to not having paid too much attention to the spectacle. There is something a bit silly about those conventions, and the speeches to a crowd that will cheer madly no matter what is being said, and overall I think the potential effect on the outcome of the election is a bit overestimated.

Certainly it’s a way to build momentum, but if gotten the momentum has to be kept all the way until November and there are plenty of chances to get the initiative back, if it’s currently in the hands of the opponent.

This time around the Democrats convention seems to have gone according to plan, with Clinton expressing support for Obama, and where Obama’s speech went down well, without being spectacular. On the Republican side there was a certain nervousness about Sarah Palin, but she handled the pressure well, gave a good speech, and the event appears to have energised the party.

Measuring the effect of the conventions is hard, but the betting markets currently favour Obama 57-42, while an average of polls gives him 47-44.

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